Tuesday, October 30, 2012

No single bullet theory for Cowboys Problems

As I read all the Op-Eds after another home loss to the NY Giants, I see the usual blame game.  It's Romo's fault, it's Garrett's fault, it's Felix Jones, it's Dez Bryant and of course the primary focus of Jerry Jones.  And that in itself is the problem.  There is not one issue that can be repaired to help this troubled franchise from its own demise.  Let's break down the issues:

1.  Romo - Romo is a good Quarter Back.  In fact he is very good.  But he is not elite.  Let me give an example....In the Giants game with ~ 1.5 minutes left, the Cowboys are at the 19 yard line and it's 2nd and 1 yard to go for a first down.  Garrett sends Romo a run/pass option, which means if there are more defenders in the "box" than there are blockers, then pass.  If there are fewer defenders in the box than, blockers then run.  In reality the Giants put six defenders in the box and the Cowboys had six blockers.  In this situation now it is a toss up and Romo can choose either - Run or Pass.  There is plenty of time and you have all three time outs, smart money says you have a helmet on helmet between blockers and defenders, so run the ball and get the first down.  A run has a higher percentage of working and has less chance of catastrophic failure as compared to a pass (QB sack for loss of yards or interception).  So Romo's first mistake is he choses Pass over Run.  But that's still OK, it's 6 on 6 he's got Ogletree lined up wide right with single coverage.  He's got Austin in the slot with what appears to be single coverage... so while not the highest percentage choice, it is a viable option.  But Romo's next decision is what takes him out of elite status and why the Cowboys let a great chance to win the game slip away.  After the snap, and after the defenders move to their respective positions,  Romo's first read is correct.  Miles Austin in the slot has single coverage and Kevin Ogletree wide right is also in single coverage.  The Giants decide to double cover Witten and Bryant.  So now Romo's decision to chose pass over run doesn't look too bad.  But Romo has a choice now based on the passing play sent in by Garrett.  Austin is running across the middle for a first down and Ogletree is running to the back corner of the end zone for a fade route.  Even though there is plenty of time, Romo wants the score and he wants it now.  He mistakenly throws the fade pass to Ogletree.  The fade has a very low percentage conversion.  Romo has three WRs with over 100 yards receiving in the game and none of them are named Ogletree.  In fact Ogletree has zero receptions in this game and has performed very poorly since his break out performance in Week 1, six weeks ago.  He could've thrown a simple pass and catch to Austin for the first down, taken more time off the clock and lived for four more downs to get the game winning Touchdown, or he could go for it all on a low percentage throw to a non-factor wide receiver.  Romo choses the latter and in the end the Cowboys lose.  Romo's ability to bring his team back from a 23 - 0 deficit and his 6 years of great stats demonstrates he is a very good Quarterback, but most of his decisions in game critical situations demonstrate he is not an Elite Quarterback.  Which leads us to our next problem with the Cowboys.  There are a lot of teams that have had success with very good Quarterbacks and even good Quarterbacks.  I won't take the time to list them all here.  But teams that have had success with less than elite QBs have other things going for them that the Cowboys do not.

2.  Jason Garrett is not experienced or good enough to be both the offensive coordinator, offensive play caller and head coach simultaneously.  He may be good a good offensive coordinator, he may be a good offensive play caller - certainly the Cowboys offensive stats demonstrate this idea since his arrival as offensive coordinator.  And Garrett may also be a good head coach after a few years of experience like Tom Landry.  But right now, he is not good at all three simultaneously.  Which leads us to the other problem with the Cowboys.... Jerry Jones.

3.  Jerry Jones is not a good General Manager.  He does not want a head coach with all of the power to make the personnel decisions, exampled by this long list of *removing good coaches and bringing in ^weak coaches.... *Jimmy Johnson,  ^Barry Switzer, ^Chan Gailey, ^Dave Campo, *Bill Parcells, ^Wade Phillips, Jason Garrett.  Jason actually falls somewhere in between, he obviously has more power than Wade Phillips or Dave Campo, but not full control like Jimmy Johnson or Bill Parcells.  This can be seen in the player decisions by Garrett.  In his first two years, he has removed from the Cowboys all of the dead weight that were not working hard, even if they were starters - Martellus Bennett, Andre Gurode, Roy Williams, Marion Barber, etc.  However, now we have the Jerry Jones interference - Felix Jones.  Felix didn't show up to training camp in shape, he's slow, he's ineffective returning kicks, ineffective running the ball and now for some reason is having problems catching the ball.  Based on Garrett's history with older players, Felix would be gone and in would come Tanner and Dunbar to carry the load during DeMarco Murray's injury.  But Jerry loves the Arkansas connection with Felix.  Finally and 6 weeks too late, Felix is replaced on kick returns by Dunbar.  In the rushing game, Felix's contribution could easily be replaced with a combination of Tanner and Dunbar, but yet Felix continues to get the starting RB position and majority of carries.  With Garrett's recent player moves but Jerry Jones' history of affection and meddling with certain players, it is obvious Felix is still playing because Jerry wants it, thereby undercutting the authority of his head coach.

So as always, primarily the issue is with Jerry.  However, as usual there is not one single bullet problem that can be corrected.  Romo needs to make better decisions, or the head coach needs to take these decisions away from Romo.  The head coach needs to decide whether he wants to be a head coach or offensive play caller.  And the head coach needs more experience.  Unfortunately the Cowboys have all of these problems at once and none of them appear to be corrected anytime soon.  For that reason, the Cowboys will be competitive during most games but will fall short of making any type of real playoff push.


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